AGP Executive Report

EU Sanctions & Trade: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package is set to include firms based in India and also names entities tied to countries including Turkey, raising uncertainty for an EU-India trade deal that Brussels is trying to ratify. Middle East Energy Shock: Oil slid and stocks jumped after the US and Iran reached a preliminary framework to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing in Geneva on June 19—though nuclear and sanctions issues are still unresolved. Türkiye in Diplomacy: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi held calls with Türkiye’s Hakan Fidan and others, stressing US responsibility for implementing the deal and pushing for a full halt to destabilizing attacks. Industrial Pulse: Türkiye’s calendar-adjusted industrial production rose 6% year-on-year in April, led by manufacturing and high-tech output. Auto Investment: Renault is expanding its Boreal model production in Bursa, bringing a full hybrid powertrain to support exports across Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Tech & Work: A global employment law report flags rising pressure on employers from AI, skills shortages, remote work, and workplace safety rules. Sports Business: Galatasaray is reportedly monitoring Club Brugge striker Nicolo Tresoldi amid uncertainty around Victor Osimhen.

Turkey–Saudi Connectivity: Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu says Ankara and Riyadh want a rail link that reaches Turkey via Jordan and Syria within 3–4 years, with an initial phase to move freight, oil, gas and passengers toward Europe; a feasibility study is expected and other Gulf states could join later. US–Iran Deal & Energy Shock: Trump says a US-Iran peace agreement is “very close,” with Strait of Hormuz reopening and US naval blockade easing; Turkey is flagged as facing major costs from the Hormuz disruption, with an energy think-tank estimating billions in higher oil and gas import bills. Diplomacy in the Background: Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar spoke with Turkey’s Hakan Fidan, welcoming “encouraging progress” toward US-Iran understanding, while mediators including Turkey are credited with narrowing gaps. EU Trade/Geopolitics: A new EU sanctions package targeting Russia-linked entities could complicate ratification of an EU–India trade deal, with officials citing listings that include companies tied to multiple countries including Turkey. TIKA–Bangladesh Cooperation: Bangladesh’s ambassador urged TIKA to deepen long-term cooperation in areas like vocational training, digital transformation, renewable energy and healthcare capacity building. World Cup Business Angle: Australia’s 2-0 win over Türkiye in Group D is drawing attention from Turkish fans and watch-party economies, while brand campaigns are leaning into match-day rituals across Turkey and other markets.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU is drafting a new Russia-focused sanctions package that would also hit firms tied to Turkey and other countries, potentially complicating an EU-India trade deal that Brussels is trying to ratify. Energy & Geopolitics: France is doubling down on Eastern Mediterranean energy via TotalEnergies and regional partnerships, aiming to secure export routes and counterbalance Turkey’s influence. AI Push in Turkey: President Erdoğan unveiled a 2026-2030 AI action plan targeting at least $10bn in private investment for data centers and AI infrastructure, with a goal of reaching 1 GW installed capacity by 2030. Solar Manufacturing Boom: Turkey’s solar glass capacity reportedly jumped fivefold in a year to 87m square meters, as the sector argues it needs protection from unfair imports. Trade Flows: Ukraine led Turkey’s export growth in May, adding nearly $340m year-on-year, driven by demand for industrial and energy equipment. Security & Finance: Turkish police arrested a Nigerian suspect in a $2.5m romance scam case involving a Hong Kong victim. Tourism: Bodrum’s summer season is bringing heavier yacht traffic, raising congestion concerns for sightseeing operators.

EU-India Trade Tensions: The EU’s new Russia sanctions proposal could complicate ratification of the long-awaited EU-India trade deal, with the package targeting 50 companies across multiple countries including Turkey, and requiring unanimous approval by all 27 member states. AI & Data Infrastructure: UAE tycoon Hussain Sajwani’s DAMAC is pouring billions into data centres, betting on AI-driven demand for computing power and aiming to become a global “data” leader. Digital Power Debate: Baykar chief Selçuk Bayraktar warns that AI-driven tech monopolies can undermine national independence by exploiting users’ attention and data, urging open-source, auditable ecosystems. Regional Politics: A coalition government still hasn’t formed in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region after KDP-PUK disagreements, prolonging caretaker rule and feeding broader Iraqi political uncertainty. Turkey-Linked Democracy Dialogue: An Istanbul conference on democratic transformation featured calls for “democratic integration” and linked Kurdish peace efforts to broader democratic reform. Gaza Ceasefire Talks: Palestinian and Egyptian officials discussed implementing the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including humanitarian access and an international stabilization role. World Cup Business Pulse: USMNT’s opening win is driving a surge in World Cup ticket resale prices, while Turkey’s TRT is among broadcasters offering Brazil vs Morocco free streaming.

EU-Russia Sanctions & Trade: The EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia would include entities based in India, with possible spillover for an EU-India trade deal still awaiting ratification, as officials target a July 15 timeline. Turkey-Saudi Logistics Push: Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed MoUs to expand logistics and rail links, with Israeli media warning the proposed Gulf-to-Europe overland corridor via Syria and Jordan could undercut Israel-backed transit routes. Anti-Fraud Crackdown: A Nigerian man was arrested in Istanbul over a $2.5m romance scam targeting a Hong Kong dentist, after alleged transfers to Turkish accounts between 2020-2022. Competition Policy: Turkey’s Competition Authority chief Birol Küle urged Turkic states to coordinate antitrust enforcement through a joint regulatory front at the Shusha Turkic Competition Forum. Smuggling Bust: Turkish customs seized more than one ton of illicit drugs at the Ipsala border gate, with an estimated value above 3bn liras. Macroeconomic Outlook: Turkish officials said disinflation policy remains on track despite shocks, with the current account deficit described as manageable.

EU-Turkey Trade Watch: A new EU sanctions proposal tied to Russia includes entities based in India and also names companies across multiple countries, including Turkey, raising uncertainty for an EU-India trade deal that both sides are trying to ratify. Energy Diplomacy: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev says Türkiye is seeking to renegotiate the BOTAS gas deal to deepen energy cooperation, including gas transmission and electricity transport, amid arrears and potential damages if the take-or-pay terms change. Aviation & Security: Turkish Airlines is in the spotlight as a Dubai court waived service steps in a case involving a Turkish commodities trader facing a large Russian award claim over alleged forged documents. COP31 Pressure: Nearly 100 groups urge COP31 co-hosts Turkey and Australia to “lead by example” by cutting fossil fuel reliance, warning action must start at home. Defense Industry: Boeing has dropped out of the U.S. Navy’s T-45 replacement competition, leaving other teams as contenders. Regional Tensions: Erdogan and Netanyahu traded harsh accusations again, with Erdogan warning Israel’s actions threaten Turkey.

White Meat Crackdown: Turkey’s justice ministry says court-appointed trustees were assigned to major chicken producers (Şenpiliç, Banvit, Erpiliç, Keskinoğlu, Gedik, Lezita) over allegations of market distortion and unjustified price hikes, while 32 people were detained across eight provinces. Monetary Policy Watch: The Central Bank’s survey shows year-end CPI inflation expectations edging up to 29.14%, with the monthly June rise forecast easing to 1.36%; the bank also held the policy rate at 37% for a third straight meeting as it monitors the inflation impact of the Iran-related energy shock. Inflation Roadmap: Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said disinflation will resume after a short delay, while reiterating budget targets despite crude-oil pressure. Regional Diplomacy: Syria reopened its consulate in Gaziantep after 15 years, signaling further normalization with Türkiye. Energy & Trade Routes: With Hormuz risks back in focus, analysis argues Türkiye could position itself as a trade bridge between Asia and Europe—if the land corridor can move from ambition to workable logistics. Aviation Incident: A Turkish Airlines Boeing 777 taxiing at Antalya struck a radar, damaging the wing and injuring one passenger.

Turkey Monetary Policy: Turkey’s central bank kept the policy rate unchanged for a third straight meeting at 37%, citing cooling activity and saying the war’s inflation impact looks temporary. Energy Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Türkiye and Bulgaria reaffirmed plans for a new border crossing near Kapıkule and pushed gas transmission expansion as “strategic” for Eastern Europe’s energy security. US-Iran Shockwave: Trump said he cancelled threatened strikes on Iran after talks reached the “highest level” of Iranian leadership, raising hopes for a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a US blockade once finalized. Global Markets: The Iran de-escalation sparked a rebound on Wall Street and a sharp drop in oil prices, while investors watched whether the agreement is signed soon. LegalTech Funding: Compuvi raised seed financing at a $40m valuation to expand Confinaid, a preventive legal and compliance risk platform, backed by a Turkish investor and Ozay Law Firm. Regional Watch: Armenia’s election results strengthen PM Pashinyan’s West-facing push but complicate constitutional steps needed to lock in peace with Azerbaijan.

Overseas Contracting Boom: Turkey’s contractors won 40 projects worth $2.3 billion across 15 countries in the first five months, keeping the sector among the world’s top international earners. Monetary Policy Watch: Turkey’s central bank held the key policy rate at 37%, pointing to a slight easing in the inflation trend in May after April’s rise. EV Investment Scrutiny: Turkish lawmakers raised questions over BYD’s $1bn EV factory plan in Manisa; the Industry and Technology minister said the project remains under active supervision under incentive rules. Tech Deal for Istanbul: Scopely agreed to buy a majority stake in Istanbul’s Loom Games in a deal valuing the company at over $1bn, with Loom’s founders staying on. Opposition Party Turmoil: CHP figures linked to ousted leader Özgür Özel resigned from the party assembly, a move that could trigger an extraordinary congress to re-elect a chairman. Telecom Milestone: Türk Telekom’s Netsia BB Suite passed 1 million homes passed, expanding open-source fiber access across Türkiye. Global Markets: Gold’s sharp pullback may not be over, with traders betting weakness could last through 2028. Regional Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Greece’s counterpart in Sofia, urging cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean and stressing respect for international law.

EIB Clean Energy Push: The EIB signed a €200m deal with Turk Eximbank and TKYB to finance clean energy, with funds earmarked for Turkish SMEs. Free-Trade Talks Restart: Canada and Türkiye agreed to restart initial free-trade discussions, with both sides also exploring renewable and nuclear energy cooperation. Hejaz Railway & Logistics: Türkiye and Saudi Arabia signed MoUs on logistics services and railway cooperation, with plans tied to modernising and extending the Hejaz Railway as an alternative trade route. AI Competition Watch: OpenAI and Anthropic are stepping up warnings about advanced AI risks as the race for bigger models heats up. Meta Under Scrutiny: Turkey’s competition authority opened an investigation into Meta over AI practices. BYD Hits Pause in Türkiye: BYD has shelved its $1bn Türkiye EV plant plan, prioritising Hungary instead. Regional Diplomacy: Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye held a trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting in Istanbul focused on energy, transport and connectivity. Middle East Tensions: Erdoğan warned Israel’s attacks on Syria and Lebanon now threaten Türkiye, while US-Iran strikes and renewed threats keep the region on edge.

Nuclear Power Push: Türkiye’s Akkuyu plant hit a key milestone by loading 163 simulated fuel assemblies into its first reactor, aiming for first electricity by year-end. Green Finance: Türkiye secured €200m from the EIB for its green transition, split between sustainable industry support and green export financing via Türk Eximbank. COP31 Agenda: COP31 host Türkiye put electrification at the center of climate talks, backing a voluntary goal to reach 35% of global energy demand from electricity by 2035. Rail & Trade Corridors: Türkiye and Saudi Arabia signed railway and transport MoUs to boost connectivity via Syria and Jordan, with an eye on extending the route toward Oman to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Digital & Competition: Meta plans to use off-platform business data for feed and AI personalization, while Turkey’s competition watchdog is also moving on AI-related probes. Energy Security: Türkiye’s inflation outlook faces pressure from the Iran war, while airlines warn of winter flight disruptions as jet fuel costs stay high. Regulation Crackdown: Turkey launched a crackdown on influencers using banned OnlyFans, with prosecutors seeking up to 10 years in jail for alleged obscene content.

Diplomacy & Reconstruction: Libya’s Deputy Commander Saddam Haftar hosted a Turkish delegation led by Ali Onaner, with Ankara highlighting Turkish urban development support in cities like Benghazi and pledging deeper cooperation. EU Maritime Security: The EU launched a renewed crackdown on “dark fleet” activity under Operation Irini, aiming to board and inspect suspicious vessels tied to fraud, false flags, and safety or labor breaches. Connectivity & Rail: Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed MoUs to boost transport, logistics and railway cooperation, including plans to revive the Hejaz Railway as an alternative Gulf-to-Mediterranean trade corridor. COP31 Energy Push: Turkey’s COP31 team is backing a voluntary global target to raise electricity’s share of energy demand to 35% by 2035, positioning electrification as a way to cut fossil fuel exposure and stabilize costs. Islamic Finance & Banking: Erdoğan announced a merger of state participation banks, while Turkey continues promoting Islamic finance to attract development capital. Tech & Regulation: Meta said it will use off-site business activity to personalize users’ feeds and AI chatbot responses, expanding its data-use controls. Markets: Pakistan’s PSX saw a modest rebound on easing regional tensions, with banks leading gains.

Aviation & Trade: Türkiye and Canada have agreed to launch exploratory talks toward a free trade agreement, after ministers met in line with a Carney–Erdogan call, with both sides also pointing to expanded air links and energy cooperation. Tax & Finance: Turkey’s Finance Ministry is asking banks for information on gold metal loans, as policymakers weigh further measures on the precious metal market. Law Enforcement: Turkish security forces detained 47 suspects in a nationwide crackdown on illegal online gambling, seizing a reported 5 billion Turkish lira in detected financial volume and cash hidden in diapers at an airport. Defense Tech: BlackBelt Technologies made its first public appearance at IDEES Plovdiv, unveiling its Forge-OS autonomy software and starting exploratory technical talks with Turkish UAV maker TEUSAN. Airlines: Turkish Airlines plans to expand its direct long-haul network with ultra-long-range aircraft from late 2027, aiming for non-stop routes up to 17 hours. Health & Markets: GEN Pharmaceuticals dosed the first patient in a Phase II proof-of-concept trial for SUL-238 in early, untreated Parkinson’s disease. Regional Energy: Iraq is pushing to boost oil exports via the Kurdistan–Turkey pipeline network, aiming to raise shipments sharply as Hormuz disruptions hit revenues.

Turkey-Venezuela Trade Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met President Erdoğan in Istanbul to deepen cooperation on trade, energy and mining, with Ankara targeting a jump in bilateral trade from $448m (2025) to $3bn. Regional Diplomacy: Turkey postponed the “Blue Homeland” maritime jurisdiction bill tied to its doctrine, likely until after the summer recess, as NATO summit diplomacy approaches. Canada-Turkiye Free Trade Talks: Canada and Turkiye agreed to start exploratory discussions for a potential FTA, also flagging renewable and nuclear energy cooperation and aerospace/defence links. Turkey-Syria Economic Talks: Syrian and Turkish economy ministers will meet in Gaziantep to map the next phase of trade and investment, under a city economies summit with business participation. Business & Law: Prosecutors opened an investigation into 95-year-old Rahmi Koç after a controversial remark about a Kurdish woman, sparking backlash affecting Koç-linked businesses. Aviation Costs Watch: Airlines say Middle East fuel shocks are hitting hard, but taxes and regulation remain their biggest worry. Maritime & Energy: Iraq plans to raise northern oil exports via lines linked to Turkey and Syria toward 650,000 bpd, aiming to reduce reliance on maritime routes.

Aviation & Trade: Turkish Airlines says it will expand its direct network with ultra-long-range Airbus A350-1000 aircraft from late 2027, enabling non-stop flights of up to 17 hours and new reach to cities like Sydney and Buenos Aires. Export Outlook: The Istanbul Chamber of Industry’s Manufacturing Export Markets Climate Index edged up to 50.3 in May, signaling only marginal improvement, with weakness flagged in key European markets but steadier activity in the US and a recovery in parts of the Middle East. Defense Industry Push: A Reuters review says Turkey’s defense exports have more than tripled since 2021 to nearly $10bn last year, as Ankara seeks deeper industrial cooperation with Western partners amid rising European rearmament. Naval Exports: STM launched RAJA LAUT, the second corvette for Malaysia’s LMS Batch-2 project, with the third ship due in August. Regional Risk for Business: Israel and Iran exchanged strikes again after a fragile April ceasefire, raising concerns for shipping and oil prices as Middle East tensions flare. Armenia Politics With Economic Stakes: Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract won a parliamentary election with 49.8%, strengthening Pashinyan’s Westward pivot and keeping pressure on peace and normalization steps involving Azerbaijan and Turkey. Tourism & Travel Rules: Ryanair warned EU Entry/Exit System (EES) rules may slow passport control for some passengers, including routes involving Turkey.

Defence & NATO: UK, Ukraine, France and Germany urged an “immediate and complete ceasefire” after Russia’s Oreshnik missile strikes, while also pushing for faster production of interceptors and deep-strike capabilities ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara. Middle East Energy & Trade: The US Treasury expanded sanctions on Iran-linked LPG shipping, blacklisting six more carriers and adding Turkish-linked individuals tied to UAE-based “shadow fleet” trade. Regional Security: Iran launched missiles at Israel for the first time since an early-April ceasefire, with Israel saying it intercepted the barrage but warning its defences aren’t “hermetic,” as Beirut was hit despite ceasefire hopes. Turkey’s Business Angle: Iraq says it will boost oil exports via alternative routes through Syria and Turkey to 650,000 barrels per day, including higher Kirkuk flows through Ceyhan. Sports & Economy: Galatasaray reportedly targets Jhon Duran and Randal Kolo Muani to deepen its attack alongside Victor Osimhen, signaling another busy transfer push. Elections & Geopolitics: Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract led early parliamentary results with 54% as the vote tests Pashinyan’s Westward pivot.